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<reference anchor="I-D.melegassi-mvps-ddos-resilience" target="https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/draft-melegassi-mvps-ddos-resilience-00">
   <front>
      <title>Volume-Independent DDoS Detection via Coherence-BFD: The MVPS DDoS Resilience Profile</title>
      <author initials="L. M." surname="Costa" fullname="Leonardo Melegassi Costa">
         <organization>Catellix</organization>
      </author>
      <date month="May" day="26" year="2026" />
      <abstract>
	 <t>   This document specifies how the Multi-Vantage Path Synchrony
   (MVPS) framework [I-D.melegassi-ippm-mvps-bundle] and its
   sub-tick variant Coherence-BFD [I-D.melegassi-coherence-bfd]
   detect volumetric and distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS)
   attacks in time bounded by (M-1)*T_tick, INDEPENDENT of the
   attack rate in packets-per-second or bits-per-second.

   We prove three theorems:

      Theorem D1 (Volume-Independence).  Detection latency is a
      function of the control-tick period T_tick and the
      M-multiplier confirmation count alone; it does not grow
      with attack volume.

      Theorem D2 (Distributed-Attack Bound).  The framework
      detects up to floor((k-1)/2) simultaneous regional attacks
      under cell-aware minimax aggregation, where k is the number
      of coherence cells.

      Theorem D3 (Broker NIC Sizing).  Under the three
      architectural invariants of Section 3, broker NIC sizing is
      independent of attack volume; it is determined only by the
      legitimate telemetry packets-per-second.

   These claims are supported by empirical results on 11 scenarios
   ranging from 10 Mpps to 5 Tbps equivalent (Section 6).

   NOTE ON DATA PROVENANCE.  Section 6 numerical results are obtained
   from synthetic simulations under controlled conditions
   (reproducibility script scripts/simulate_ddos_extreme.py).

   EVIDENCE UPDATE (v5.0 unified proof, 2026-05-22).  Theorem D1
   (Volume-Independence) is now also supported by real-world data
   collected from the RIPE Stat BGP-updates API:

      R6 (multi-prefix BGP sweep).  Five anycast DNS prefixes
      (Google 8.8.8.0/24, Cloudflare 1.1.1.0/24, Quad9 9.9.9.0/24,
      OpenDNS 208.67.222.0/24, Level3 4.2.2.0/24), 30 days,
      baseline update counts spanning approximately 9x across
      prefixes.  Alarms fire on RELATIVE D^2 spike, never on
      absolute volume:
        - Google DNS  baseline 82 upd/day, alarm peaks at 1899
          (ratio 14.2x): 3 alarm days;
        - Cloudflare  baseline 24 upd/day, peak 51 (ratio 2.1x):
          0 alarm days despite low baseline;
        - Quad9       baseline 11 upd/day, peak 432 (ratio 39.3x):
          3 alarm days at low absolute volume;
        - OpenDNS     baseline 31 upd/day, peak 686 (ratio 22.1x):
          3 alarm days;
        - Level3      baseline 0 upd/day, peak 0:  0 alarm days.

      The fact that Quad9 + OpenDNS alarm AT LOW ABSOLUTE VOLUME
      while Cloudflare DOES NOT ALARM at higher absolute volume
      empirically refutes any &quot;volume-driven&quot; interpretation of the
      detector.  D1 is now both theoretically proved (Section 4.1)
      AND empirically observed on real Internet routing data.

      R7 (tau_C SIR cascade).  All 12 alarm events from R2 + R6
      localise within &lt;= 2 days (mean burst width 1.33 days).  This
      confirms the SIR macroscopic prediction underlying the
      detection-latency bound of Theorem D1.

   Validation against operational *attack* data (Cloudflare Radar,
   CAIDA Telescope, or commercial scrubber traces) remains required
   future work in Section 9.

   A REFERENCE IMPLEMENTATION of the cell-aware minimax detector
   used in Theorem D2 is provided at
   &lt;https://catellix.com/static/download/reference-impl/&gt;.  It
   exhibits the &quot;perfect Byzantine hiding&quot; regime documented in
   Section 7.2 of this draft.



	 </t>
      </abstract>
   </front>
   <seriesInfo name="Internet-Draft" value="draft-melegassi-mvps-ddos-resilience-00" />
   
</reference>
