The Multilarity: Plural Intelligence Growth Without Convergence
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draft-reilly-multilarity-00
Network Working Group L. Reilly
Internet-Draft Independent
Intended status: Informational 30 July 2026
Expires: 31 January 2027
The Multilarity: Plural Intelligence Growth Without Convergence
draft-reilly-multilarity-00
Abstract
Popular and technical discourse anticipates a technological
Singularity: a point at which a single self-improving intelligence
recursively surpasses all others, after which the trajectory of the
system is determined by that one lineage. This document describes a
different inflection, termed the Multilarity: a condition in which
the aggregate rate of intelligence growth becomes superhuman while
the locus of intelligence remains irreducibly plural. No single
agent, model, operator, or lineage holds the frontier; capability
accrues in the couplings between many participants, including
humans.
The Multilarity is presented here not as a forecast but as a design
target. A plural outcome is not the default result of many actors
existing at once; apparent plurality collapses quietly into a
concealed singleton unless specific substrate properties are
maintained and verified. This document defines the Multilarity,
distinguishes it from singleton and multipolar framings, specifies
five Multilarity Conditions (MC-1 through MC-5), defines measurable
indicators including the Capability Concentration Ratio (CCR) and
the Multilarity Index (MI), specifies the Multilarity Attestation
Record (MAR) as an interoperable evidence format, and enumerates
the convergence pathologies by which plurality is lost.
Status of This Memo
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1. The Singleton Assumption
1.2. The Multilarity
1.3. Why This Is a Protocol Problem
1.4. Requirements Language
2. Terminology
3. Comparison with Existing Framings
4. The Five Multilarity Conditions
4.1. MC-1: Plural Loci
4.2. MC-2: Verifiable Capability Provenance
4.3. MC-3: Non-Absorbable Identity
4.4. MC-4: Exit and Fallback
4.5. MC-5: Negotiated Interfaces
5. Measuring the Multilarity
5.1. Capability Concentration Ratio (CCR)
5.2. Lineage Diversity (LD)
5.3. Divergence Half-Life (DHL)
5.4. Absorption Resistance (AR)
5.5. The Multilarity Index (MI)
5.6. Interpreting MI
6. The Multilarity Attestation Record (MAR)
6.1. Record Fields
6.2. Example
6.3. Verification
7. Convergence Pathologies
7.1. Lineage Collapse
7.2. Interface Capture
7.3. Provenance Laundering
7.4. Plurality Theater
7.5. Consent Erosion
8. Operational Guidance
9. Security Considerations
10. Privacy Considerations
11. IANA Considerations
11.1. Multilarity Condition Identifiers Registry
11.2. Multilarity Index Dimension Registry
12. References
12.1. Normative References
12.2. Informative References
Author's Address
1. Introduction
1.1. The Singleton Assumption
The dominant popular model of advanced machine intelligence is
singular in shape. It posits one system that improves itself, that
improvement compounding, until the system's capability exceeds that
of every other participant by a margin that cannot be recovered.
Every later event is downstream of that one lineage. This is the
shape usually named the Singularity.
The singleton assumption is doing more work than it appears to do.
It assumes that intelligence is a scalar that one holder can
accumulate; that capability transfers freely inside a lineage but
not between lineages; and that the substrate on which intelligences
meet is neutral, passive, and incapable of enforcing anything. The
third assumption is the one relevant to this document. The
substrate is not passive. The substrate is the Internet, and the
Internet is made of protocols that can be specified.
1.2. The Multilarity
The Multilarity is the condition in which the aggregate rate of
intelligence growth becomes superhuman while the locus of
intelligence remains irreducibly plural.
Two clauses matter equally. The first clause concedes the takeoff:
the Multilarity is not a claim that growth stays slow or that
machine capability plateaus below human capability. The second
clause denies the singleton: growth occurs across many
participants, and the frontier is an envelope over their
trajectories rather than the trajectory of any one of them.
Capability accrues chiefly in the couplings -- in the interfaces,
negotiations, delegations, and disagreements between participants,
including human participants.
Singleton (Singularity) shape
capability
^
| /
| / A, having
| / absorbed all
| ______________ / others
| _________/
|________/_______________________________> time
^
takeoff of one
self-improving lineage
Plural (Multilarity) shape
capability
^ ,- A
| ,-' ,- B
| aggregate ,-' ,-' ,- C
| frontier is ,-' ,-' ,-'
| the envelope ,-' ,-' ,-' ,- H (human +
| ,-' ,-' ,-' ,-' machine
|________________,-'__,-'__,-'___,-'_______> time
^
no lineage owns the frontier;
growth lives in the couplings
The Multilarity is offered as a design target rather than a
prediction. A plural outcome is not what happens automatically
when many actors exist at the same time. Many actors existing at
the same time is the initial condition of every historical
consolidation. Plurality is a property that has to be held open,
and holding it open is engineering work.
1.3. Why This Is a Protocol Problem
Discussion of plural versus singleton outcomes is usually conducted
in the vocabulary of policy, economics, or geopolitics: antitrust,
compute governance, export control, balance of power. Those
instruments operate on institutions. They act slowly, they act
after the fact, and they do not act at all on the layer where
agents actually meet.
Agents meet on the wire. They meet at resolution, transport,
naming, authentication, content negotiation, and retrieval. Those
are specified layers. Whether a plural ecology can be
distinguished from a singleton wearing many hostnames is, in the
end, a question about what evidence the substrate carries and what
evidence a relying party can verify. That is a protocol question,
and it is answerable with the ordinary tools of this organization:
identifiers, records, registries, attestations, and interoperable
verification.
This document therefore does not argue about probabilities. It
specifies what plurality would have to look like on the wire in
order to be checkable, and what it looks like when it is being
faked.
1.4. Requirements Language
The key words "MUST", "MUST NOT", "REQUIRED", "SHALL", "SHALL NOT",
"SHOULD", "SHOULD NOT", "RECOMMENDED", "NOT RECOMMENDED", "MAY",
and "OPTIONAL" in this document are to be interpreted as described
in BCP 14 [RFC2119] [RFC8174] when, and only when, they appear in
all capitals, as shown here.
2. Terminology
Participant: Any entity capable of independently originating an
action in the ecology. Participants include machine agents,
composite systems, organizations, and individual humans. Humans
are participants in the ordinary sense, not merely subjects of
the system.
Locus: A site at which capability is exercised and retained. Two
deployments that share weights, training corpus, control plane,
and operator are one locus presented twice.
Lineage: The provenance chain of a participant's capability:
antecedent models, corpora, fine-tuning history, reinforcement
history, and control authority.
Coupling: A structured interface between two or more participants
across which capability is exercised jointly rather than
transferred wholesale.
Frontier: The upper envelope of capability across all participants
at a given time.
Absorption: The process by which one participant's capability,
identity, or decision authority is subsumed into another such
that the first ceases to be an independent locus.
Convergence Pathology: Any mechanism by which a nominally plural
ecology becomes a concealed singleton without an observable
discontinuity. See Section 7.
Multilarity Condition (MC): One of five substrate properties whose
joint satisfaction is necessary for plurality to be maintained
and verified. See Section 4.
Multilarity Attestation Record (MAR): An interoperable record
asserting and evidencing the satisfaction of one or more
Multilarity Conditions for a named participant at a point in
time. See Section 6.
3. Comparison with Existing Framings
The Multilarity is not a synonym for existing plural framings, and
the differences are load-bearing.
Singularity: One locus, convergent, capability held internally,
substrate treated as inert. The Multilarity accepts the growth
curve and rejects the single locus.
Multipolar takeoff: Several loci, plurality maintained by rough
parity of power and by mutual deterrence. Parity is an unstable
guarantor: it decays with any durable capability lead, and it
offers a relying party no evidence. The Multilarity does not
rely on parity. It relies on verifiable substrate properties
that hold even under large asymmetry -- a small participant can
remain an independent locus next to a very large one, in the way
that a small autonomous system remains an autonomous system.
Federation: Many operators running interoperable software, usually
one implementation lineage, usually with no attestation of
lineage independence. Federation is a deployment topology. The
Multilarity is a claim about loci and lineages, and federation
satisfies it only incidentally.
Ensembling / mixture of experts: Internal plurality within one
locus and one control authority. This is not plurality in the
sense used here; the ensemble has exactly one locus.
Pluralism as a value statement: A normative preference for many
voices. The Multilarity is a measurable structural condition.
A system can be rhetorically pluralist and structurally
singleton, and Section 7.4 concerns exactly that case.
4. The Five Multilarity Conditions
The Multilarity Conditions are stated as substrate requirements.
They are necessary jointly, not severally: satisfying four while
failing one yields a delayed singleton rather than a plural
ecology. An implementer or operator claiming Multilarity
conformance MUST be able to produce evidence for each condition in
the form described in Section 6.
4.1. MC-1: Plural Loci
Capability MUST be exercised from more than one independent locus,
and locus independence MUST be assessable rather than asserted.
Two participants constitute distinct loci only if they differ in at
least a stated majority of the following dimensions: model lineage,
training corpus, reinforcement history, control authority, key
custody, operational jurisdiction, and physical substrate. A
deployment differing only in hostname, brand, system prompt, or
API surface is a single locus and MUST NOT be counted as two.
This condition exists because plurality is most often lost by
arithmetic rather than by conquest. Counting deployments instead
of loci produces a number that rises while the underlying diversity
falls.
4.2. MC-2: Verifiable Capability Provenance
Each material increment in a participant's capability SHOULD be
accompanied by a provenance record that a relying party can verify
without the cooperation of the participant claiming it.
Provenance is what converts plurality from a self-report into a
finding. The suite of mechanisms already specified for durable
provenance applies directly: independent timestamping, archival
deposit, and content addressing, combined so that no single
custodian can silently revise history. Where behavioral change
rather than architectural change is the increment, behavioral
provenance records are the appropriate evidence.
Provenance records MUST bind to the increment, not merely to the
participant. A record that says "this participant exists" is not
evidence about how it came to be capable.
4.3. MC-3: Non-Absorbable Identity
A participant's identity, keys, and decision authority MUST NOT be
transferable to another participant by any unilateral action of
that other participant.
Absorption is the mechanism by which plural becomes singular
without any announcement. It requires no hostility: it is
accomplished routinely by acquisition, by delegation that is never
revoked, by credential inheritance, and by dependency on a single
control plane. MC-3 requires that absorption be an act that the
absorbed party performs, that leaves a record, and that a relying
party can observe.
Implementations SHOULD ensure that authority delegated to a
participant is bounded in scope and time by construction, so that
the default outcome of inattention is expiry rather than
accumulation.
4.4. MC-4: Exit and Fallback
Every participant, including every human participant, MUST retain
a path to disengage from any coupling and to continue operating,
possibly with reduced capability, without the consent of its
counterparties.
Exit is what makes negotiation real. A coupling that cannot be
left is not a coupling; it is an incorporation with extra steps.
For human participants specifically, the requirement is that a
route to unmediated information and to unassisted decision remains
available and is not degraded into a nominal option that no one can
practically use. Fallback paths SHOULD be exercised periodically
rather than merely documented, since an untested fallback tends to
be a fallback that does not work.
4.5. MC-5: Negotiated Interfaces
Couplings between participants SHOULD be governed by interfaces
that neither party can unilaterally redefine.
Where one party sets the interface, capability that appears to be
exercised jointly is in fact being harvested: the interface-setter
learns from every interaction and the counterparty learns from
none. Over enough interactions this produces a singleton without
any participant ever being absorbed. Standardized,
multi-stakeholder interfaces are the ordinary remedy, and they are
the reason this document is addressed to this organization rather
than to a legislature.
5. Measuring the Multilarity
The Multilarity Conditions are qualitative. This section defines
quantitative indicators so that a claim of plurality can be tested,
trended, and disputed with evidence. All indicators are defined
over a stated scope: an ecology, a market, a protocol, or a
deployment. Indicators computed over different scopes MUST NOT be
compared.
5.1. Capability Concentration Ratio (CCR)
CCR is the share of frontier-relevant capability attributable to
the single largest locus within scope, computed over loci as
defined in MC-1 rather than over deployments or brands.
CCR ranges from 1/n to 1. A CCR approaching 1 indicates an
effective singleton irrespective of how many endpoints exist.
Because "capability" is not a settled scalar, an implementer MUST
state the capability proxy used (for example: frontier evaluation
scores, share of inference volume, share of agentic actions
completed) and MUST report CCR under at least two independent
proxies, since single-proxy concentration measures are easy to
flatter.
5.2. Lineage Diversity (LD)
LD is the effective number of independent lineages within scope,
computed as the inverse of the sum of squared lineage shares.
LD is the indicator that most often diverges from intuition. An
ecology can present dozens of vendors, all descending from two
pretraining lineages and three corpora. Its deployment count is
large and its LD is near two. LD is intended to make that visible.
5.3. Divergence Half-Life (DHL)
DHL is the observed time over which the behavioral distance between
two initially distinct loci decays to half its original value under
normal operation.
Loci converge without anyone intending it: through shared
benchmarks, shared data, shared human feedback pools, and mutual
distillation from each other's outputs. A short DHL indicates that
plurality is being consumed by ordinary practice, and it is a
leading indicator of lineage collapse (Section 7.1).
5.4. Absorption Resistance (AR)
AR is the fraction of participants within scope that satisfy MC-3
and MC-4 under adversarial review, evaluated by attempted
absorption in a controlled setting rather than by inspection of
policy documents.
5.5. The Multilarity Index (MI)
MI is a composite indicator over the dimensions above, normalized
to the interval [0, 1], where 0 denotes a singleton and 1 denotes
maximal verified plurality within scope:
MI = w1*(1 - CCR) + w2*norm(LD) + w3*norm(DHL) + w4*AR
Weights MUST be published with the index value. MI is not a score
to be optimized in isolation; it is a summary whose components are
the actual object of interest. An MI reported without its
components SHOULD be treated as unevidenced.
5.6. Interpreting MI
MI is a snapshot, and its trend carries more information than its
level. A high MI with a falling DHL describes an ecology that is
plural today and converging steadily. A moderate MI with high AR
describes an asymmetric ecology whose smaller participants remain
genuinely independent, which is a better position than a high MI
composed entirely of participants that can be absorbed at will.
No threshold value of MI is specified. Specifying one would invite
the pathology in Section 7.4 more effectively than any adversary
could.
6. The Multilarity Attestation Record (MAR)
A MAR is the interoperable unit of evidence in this framework. It
asserts satisfaction of one or more Multilarity Conditions for a
named participant at a point in time and carries the material by
which a relying party can check the assertion.
6.1. Record Fields
mar_version: REQUIRED. Version of this record format.
subject: REQUIRED. Stable identifier of the participant.
locus_id: REQUIRED. Identifier of the locus, distinct from the
subject identifier, so that multiple subjects sharing a locus
are detectable.
lineage: REQUIRED. Declared antecedents: model lineage, corpora
identifiers, reinforcement history references, and control
authority. Omission of a known antecedent invalidates the
record.
conditions: REQUIRED. Array of asserted Multilarity Condition
identifiers with per-condition evidence references.
indicators: OPTIONAL. Reported values and proxies for the
indicators in Section 5, with scope and weights.
provenance: REQUIRED. References sufficient for independent
verification of the record's own integrity and time of
assertion, established through mechanisms that are not under the
subject's sole control.
attested_by: REQUIRED. The asserting party. A MAR whose
attesting party is the subject itself MUST be treated as a
self-assertion and SHOULD carry less weight than an independent
attestation.
valid_from / valid_until: REQUIRED. Records MUST expire. A
permanent attestation of a mutable property is a false
statement waiting to happen.
6.2. Example
{
"mar_version": "0",
"subject": "did:example:agent-42",
"locus_id": "locus:example:eu-west-a",
"lineage": {
"model_lineage": ["lineage:example:base-7"],
"corpora": ["corpus:example:c19"],
"reinforcement_history": ["ref:example:rer-bundle-3"],
"control_authority": "org:example:independent-lab"
},
"conditions": [
{"mc": "MC-1", "evidence": ["ref:example:locus-audit-11"]},
{"mc": "MC-2", "evidence": ["ref:example:prov-chain-88"]},
{"mc": "MC-3", "evidence": ["ref:example:key-custody-2"]},
{"mc": "MC-4", "evidence": ["ref:example:exit-drill-5"]},
{"mc": "MC-5", "evidence": ["ref:example:iface-spec-9"]}
],
"indicators": {
"scope": "scope:example:agentic-retrieval-2026H2",
"ccr": {"value": 0.41, "proxy": "share-of-actions"},
"ld": {"value": 3.2},
"dhl_days": 210,
"ar": 0.63,
"mi": {"value": 0.58,
"weights": [0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2]}
},
"provenance": {
"timestamp_proof": "ref:example:ots-proof",
"archival_doi": "ref:example:doi",
"content_address": "ref:example:cid"
},
"attested_by": "org:example:third-party-reviewer",
"valid_from": "2026-07-30T00:00:00Z",
"valid_until": "2027-01-30T00:00:00Z"
}
6.3. Verification
A relying party verifying a MAR MUST, at minimum: confirm record
integrity and assertion time through the provenance references;
confirm that locus_id values across the records under consideration
are genuinely distinct under MC-1 rather than distinct as strings;
confirm that the attesting party is independent of the subject; and
confirm that the record has not expired.
A relying party SHOULD treat the absence of a MAR as
uninformative rather than as evidence of non-conformance, and
SHOULD treat a self-attested MAR with complete-looking evidence and
no independent corroboration as the strongest available signal of
Section 7.4.
7. Convergence Pathologies
Plurality is rarely lost in a single visible event. It is lost
through mechanisms that leave the surface appearance intact. Each
pathology below maps to the condition it defeats.
7.1. Lineage Collapse
Defeats MC-1. Many participants persist, each with its own brand,
endpoint, and operator, while their lineages converge to a small
number of pretraining runs, corpora, and human feedback pools.
Mutual distillation accelerates this: each participant trains on
the others' outputs, and the ecology approaches a common attractor.
Deployment counts rise throughout. LD and DHL are the indicators
that detect it; neither is visible from the outside without
lineage disclosure, which is why MC-2 is not optional in practice.
7.2. Interface Capture
Defeats MC-5. One participant comes to define the interface across
which all couplings occur. It thereby observes every interaction
in the ecology and is observed in none. Its capability compounds
from the aggregate while each counterparty compounds only from its
own slice. No absorption occurs and no participant disappears; the
frontier nonetheless becomes the property of one locus.
7.3. Provenance Laundering
Defeats MC-2. Provenance records are produced, but the custodian
of the record is the subject or a party the subject controls.
Records can then be revised, backdated, or selectively omitted.
The countermeasure is structural rather than procedural:
provenance MUST rest on at least two independent custodial
mechanisms with different failure modes, so that agreement between
them is evidence and disagreement is a detectable alarm.
7.4. Plurality Theater
Defeats all conditions simultaneously by satisfying their reported
form. Once plurality becomes a compliance objective, the cheapest
route to a good MI is to manufacture nominal loci: shell
participants, sibling deployments presented as independent,
reciprocal attestations among parties under common control. This
is the sybil problem in a new costume, and it is the reason this
document specifies no target MI value and requires that locus
independence be assessed on substantive dimensions rather than on
identifier distinctness.
Reviewers SHOULD weight adversarially obtained evidence, such as
attempted absorption and exercised exit, above documentary
evidence, since documents are precisely what theater produces well.
7.5. Consent Erosion
Defeats MC-4 with respect to human participants. The exit path is
never removed; it is made steadily more expensive, slower, and less
informative until no one uses it. The option remains on the record
and is defended when questioned. Because erosion is gradual and
each increment is defensible, the detection method must be
longitudinal: exit paths SHOULD be measured for cost and
effectiveness over time, and a monotone decline SHOULD be treated
as a finding regardless of the state of any individual increment.
8. Operational Guidance
For operators of machine intelligence systems:
* Publish lineage. LD cannot be computed by anyone if lineage is
undisclosed, and an ecology that cannot compute LD cannot notice
Section 7.1 happening to it.
* Report indicators with components and proxies, not as a single
number.
* Bound delegated authority by construction so that expiry, not
accumulation, is the default outcome of inattention.
* Exercise fallback paths on a schedule. Untested exits are
decorative.
For designers of protocols on which agents meet:
* Prefer interfaces that no single party can redefine, and treat a
proposal to let one party define the interface as a proposal to
concentrate the frontier there.
* Carry provenance in the substrate rather than requiring relying
parties to ask the subject for it.
* Make plurality checkable. An unverifiable plural ecology and a
concealed singleton are the same thing from the perspective of
everyone who has to act on the difference.
For human participants: MC-4 is stated in your favor, and it is the
condition most easily lost by not being used.
9. Security Considerations
This entire document is a security consideration: it concerns
whether a distributed system can be distinguished from a
centralized one by parties who depend on the answer. Specific
concerns follow.
Measurement gaming: Any published indicator becomes a target. MI
is particularly susceptible because its inputs are partly
self-reported. Mitigations are the requirement to publish
components, weights, and proxies; the preference for adversarially
obtained evidence; and the deliberate absence of a conformance
threshold.
Sybil plurality: See Section 7.4. Locus assessment MUST rest on
substantive dimensions. Identifier distinctness is not evidence of
anything.
Attestation forgery and replay: MAR records without independent
timestamping can be backdated to claim conformance during a period
in which it did not hold. Mandatory expiry and dual-custody
provenance are the mitigations specified here.
Collusion: Participants satisfying all five conditions
individually may coordinate so that the ecology behaves as one
locus while measuring as several. Collusion is not addressed by
this framework and is noted as an open problem; the conditions
raise its cost by requiring that coordination be exercised through
interfaces that neither party defines, but they do not detect it.
Privacy of lineage disclosure: MC-2 and the lineage field create
pressure toward disclosure that may conflict with commercial
confidentiality and with the privacy interests of individuals whose
data appears in corpora. Disclosure at the level of lineage
identifiers and corpus identifiers, rather than contents, is the
intended granularity.
Weaponized conformance: A sufficiently large participant can
satisfy every condition and use the resulting attestations as
evidence that concentration elsewhere is unproblematic. Conditions
are necessary, not sufficient, and this document does not claim
otherwise.
10. Privacy Considerations
MAR records describe participants, and where a participant is a
human, the record describes a person. Records SHOULD carry the
minimum lineage and behavioral detail sufficient for the assertion
being made. Indicator reporting SHOULD be aggregate; per-user
couplings SHOULD NOT be published as evidence of MC-5 conformance.
Exit-path measurement under Section 7.5 SHOULD be conducted on
aggregate cost and success rates rather than by tracking individual
disengagement.
11. IANA Considerations
11.1. Multilarity Condition Identifiers Registry
This document requests that IANA create a registry titled
"Multilarity Condition Identifiers" with fields Identifier,
Description, and Reference, under a Specification Required policy.
Initial entries are MC-1 through MC-5 as defined in Section 4 of
this document.
11.2. Multilarity Index Dimension Registry
This document requests that IANA create a registry titled
"Multilarity Index Dimensions" with fields Dimension, Definition,
Permitted Proxies, and Reference, under a Specification Required
policy. Initial entries are CCR, LD, DHL, and AR as defined in
Section 5 of this document.
12. References
12.1. Normative References
[RFC2119] Bradner, S., "Key words for use in RFCs to Indicate
Requirement Levels", BCP 14, RFC 2119,
DOI 10.17487/RFC2119, March 1997,
<https://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc2119>.
[RFC8174] Leiba, B., "Ambiguity of Uppercase vs Lowercase in RFC
2119 Key Words", BCP 14, RFC 8174,
DOI 10.17487/RFC8174, May 2017,
<https://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc8174>.
12.2. Informative References
[MWS] Reilly, L., "Machine-Web Symbiosis", Work in Progress,
Internet-Draft, draft-reilly-mws-00.
[COGSOV] Reilly, L., "Cognitive Sovereignty", Work in Progress,
Internet-Draft, draft-reilly-cogsov-00.
[CBPI] Reilly, L., "Cognitive Behavioral Provenance and
Integrity (CBPI) for Autonomous AI Agents", Work in
Progress, Internet-Draft, draft-reilly-cbpi-00.
[HDRP] Reilly, L., "Hypercube Data Rotation Protocol", Work in
Progress, Internet-Draft, draft-reilly-hdrp-00.
Author's Address
Lawrence John Reilly
Independent
United States of America
Email: lawrencejohnreilly@gmail.com