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Risks of Standalone ML-KEM in TLS 1.3
draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem-00

Document Type Active Internet-Draft (individual)
Author Muhammad Usama Sardar
Last updated 2026-05-15
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draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem-00
Transport Layer Security                                    M. U. Sardar
Internet-Draft                                       TU Dresden, Germany
Intended status: Informational                               15 May 2026
Expires: 16 November 2026

                 Risks of Standalone ML-KEM in TLS 1.3
                   draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem-00

Abstract

   We attest that standalone ML-KEM in TLS 1.3 breaks the existing
   formal proofs of TLS in state-of-the-art symbolic security analysis
   tool, ProVerif.  We also attest that from a formal analysis
   perspective, this is a much bigger change than RFC8773bis, which
   indeed went for FATT review (cf. [TLS-FATT]).  We, therefore, kindly
   ask the chairs to initiate the FATT review of standalone ML-KEM in
   TLS.

About This Document

   This note is to be removed before publishing as an RFC.

   The latest revision of this draft can be found at https://muhammad-
   usama-sardar.github.io/risks-of-mlkem/draft-usama-tls-risks-of-
   mlkem.html.  Status information for this document may be found at
   https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/draft-usama-tls-risks-of-mlkem/.

   Discussion of this document takes place on the Transport Layer
   Security Working Group mailing list (mailto:tls@ietf.org), which is
   archived at https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/browse/tls/.  Subscribe
   at https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/tls/.

   Source for this draft and an issue tracker can be found at
   https://github.com/muhammad-usama-sardar/risks-of-mlkem.

Status of This Memo

   This Internet-Draft is submitted in full conformance with the
   provisions of BCP 78 and BCP 79.

   Internet-Drafts are working documents of the Internet Engineering
   Task Force (IETF).  Note that other groups may also distribute
   working documents as Internet-Drafts.  The list of current Internet-
   Drafts is at https://datatracker.ietf.org/drafts/current/.

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Table of Contents

   1.  Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   2
     1.1.  Motivation  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   3
   2.  Conventions and Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   3
     2.1.  Where ProVerif Proofs Break . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   3
     2.2.  Current Status and Next Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
       2.2.1.  "Cost"  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
     2.3.  ML-KEM: FATT Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   5
       2.3.1.  Expected Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   5
       2.3.2.  Formal Analysis (Work-in-progress)  . . . . . . . . .   5
   3.  Security Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   6
   4.  IANA Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   6
   5.  References  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   6
     5.1.  Normative References  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   6
     5.2.  Informative References  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   7
   Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   7
   History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   8
   Author's Address  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   8

1.  Introduction

   Readers are assumed to be familiar with [NistFips203],
   [I-D.ietf-tls-rfc8446bis], and [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem].

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   We assert that the security considerations of [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem]
   are insufficient.  We believe that symbolic and computational
   analysis of ML-KEM in the context of TLS is helpful here.  We request
   that if the author has done any formal analysis, it would be very
   helpful to present the current state of formal analysis in the next
   meeting for discussion.

1.1.  Motivation

   The draft aims to formally study the security of standalone ML-KEM in
   TLS 1.3 [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem].

2.  Conventions and Definitions

   The key words "MUST", "MUST NOT", "REQUIRED", "SHALL", "SHALL NOT",
   "SHOULD", "SHOULD NOT", "RECOMMENDED", "NOT RECOMMENDED", "MAY", and
   "OPTIONAL" in this document are to be interpreted as described in
   BCP 14 [RFC2119] [RFC8174] when, and only when, they appear in all
   capitals, as shown here.

   *  Symbolic analysis: see SoK (https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf)

   *  Computational analysis: see SoK
      (https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf)

2.1.  Where ProVerif Proofs Break

   While ML-KEM [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem] looks like just a "trivial"
   addition, it makes changes as deep as the key schedule of TLS.  It
   essentially replaces the _key exchange_ by _key encapsulation_. While
   the former is symmetric, the latter is asymmetric.  This symmetry is
   in terms of exchange of roles, and that the order does not matter.
   The proof in ProVerif is, therefore, utilizes this symmetry for the
   commutativity of the components g^x and g^y, where g^x and g^y
   represent the public keys of the endpoints.  In ProVerif syntax: (see
   details here (https://github.com/CCC-Attestation/formal-spec-id-
   crisis/blob/6c3d17a428198aa058f805d16fe6baef7894028f/TLS-a/fix/tls-
   lib-simple.pvl#L38-L41))

   fun dh_ideal(element,bitstring):element.
   equation forall x:bitstring, y:bitstring;
            dh_ideal(dh_ideal(G,x),y) =
            dh_ideal(dh_ideal(G,y),x).

   Key encapsulation does not enjoy this commutativity property, or even
   an analogous symmetry argument.  There is essentially only one
   endpoint (say client) which generates the key pair (dk,ek) where dk
   represents the secret decapsulation key and ek represents the public

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   encapsulation key.  As opposed to both endpoints sending their public
   keys g^x and g^y in the key exchange, only one of the endpoints
   (client in above example) sends the public encapsulation key and peer
   sends a ciphertext.  This asymmetry breaks the existing proofs of TLS
   1.3 in ProVerif and requires a new proof.

2.2.  Current Status and Next Steps

   [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem] had an opposition of several (ca. 25 in our
   understanding) WG participants -- even more than the supporters (ca.
   21 in our understanding) -- in the last WGLC.  We see 2 possible
   options:

   *  Continue tabletop discussions on subjective calculation of risks,
      costs, tradeoffs, etc., and keep burning WG energy.

   *  Do some technical analysis using formal methods (symbolic and
      computational) to get a confirmation on the security of ML-KEM in
      the context of TLS and offer a statement for security
      considerations, and move on to more critical works like hybrid
      authentication.

   We believe the former cannot resolve the dispute.  We believe the
   latter _may_ help.

   We believe the security considerations of {{I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem}} are
   insufficient. We also believe FATT review could have significantly
   improved it, including but not limited to the preference of hybrids,
   and potential issues regarding KEM binding in TLS.
   We have provided significant feedback during the two WGLCs. However,
   almost none of that is actually reflected in the updated editor's
   version.

2.2.1.  "Cost"

   "Cost" has been presented on the list as the motivation for ML-KEM
   but no reference has yet been presented.  We believe costs will
   depend on several factors -- including but not limited to
   implementation details and deployment scenario -- and it is quite
   subjective.

   There seems to be a need for a thorough study to understand the
   "cost."  We invite the WG participants to perform this analysis and
   share the results with the WG.

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2.3.  ML-KEM: FATT Review

   We have formally requested the chairs to initiate the FATT process
   for [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem].  See this
   (https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/
   rClgrWm2hnhESXHx56U8InbwQQs/) and this
   (https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/
   tls/7lj6fYAweMBwNMxFerNl7xhY0pk/).

2.3.1.  Expected Learning

   We believe formal methods can provide additional value for security
   considerations of this draft in order to maintain the high
   cryptographic assurance of TLS.  Since we have no guarantee on
   whether ECDHE will break before ML-KEM, it seems appropriate to do
   thorough cryptographic analysis.  We believe the Harvest Now, Decrypt
   Later (HNDL) attack applies equally well to standalone ML-KEM.
   Adversary can record all traffic and decrypt it when ML-KEM is broken
   (or probably it is already broken; who knows?)

   *  As an example, it can help justify design choices, such as the
      preference for hybrids.  It can help identify ways in which ML-KEM
      can break.  It can also help identify all the assumptions under
      which the properties hold.

   *  As a relevant data point in the context of standardization, LAKE
      WG has done formal analysis for EDHOC-PSK with KEM (ref
      (https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/
      lake/2XGOI9OCwylJUfSCasvvwM2FXmw/)).

   *  _Computational_ analysis (cf. SoK
      (https://eprint.iacr.org/2019/1393.pdf))-- using tools such as
      CryptoVerif -- seems like a reasonable approach to ensure security
      of ML-KEM in TLS, such as binding.

2.3.2.  Formal Analysis (Work-in-progress)

   We have presented observation from our ongoing symbolic security
   analysis (cf. limitations in Section 3) using ProVerif on the mailing
   list.

   We argue that in general:

   1.  Migration from ECDHE to hybrid is security improvement.

   2.  Migration from hybrid to standalone ML-KEM is security
       regression.

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2.3.2.1.  Hybrid PQ/T

   More formally, the property hybrid PQ/T should provide is:

   Hybrid PQ/T is secure unless both ECDHE and ML-KEM are broken.

   Hybrid preserves ECDHE, and adds ML-KEM as an additional factor.  So
   as long as one of them is not broken, the system is secure.  In
   particular, even if ML-KEM is completely broken, the system retains
   the security level of ECDHE.

2.3.2.2.  Standalone PQ

   On the other hand, the formal property standalone PQ provides is:

   Standalone PQ is secure unless ML-KEM is broken.

   If ML-KEM is broken, the whole system is broken.

2.3.2.3.  Comparison

   Leak out the ECDHE key from hybrid PQ/T and you get a standalone ML-
   KEM.  Clearly, hybrid is in general more secure, unless ECDHE is
   fully broken, in which case it still falls equivalent to standalone
   ML-KEM, or in the hypothetical scenario that there is an
   implementation bug in the ECDHE part which is triggered only in
   composition.

3.  Security Considerations

   The whole document is about improving security considerations.

   Like all security proofs, formal analysis is only as strong as its
   assumptions and model.  The scope is typically limited, and the model
   does not necessarily capture real-world deployment complexity,
   implementation details, operational constraints, or misuse scenarios.
   Formal methods should be used as complementary and not as subtitute
   of other analysis methods.

4.  IANA Considerations

   This document has no IANA actions.

5.  References

5.1.  Normative References

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   [I-D.ietf-tls-mlkem]
              Connolly, D., "ML-KEM Post-Quantum Key Agreement for TLS
              1.3", Work in Progress, Internet-Draft, draft-ietf-tls-
              mlkem-07, 12 February 2026,
              <https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/draft-ietf-tls-
              mlkem-07>.

   [I-D.ietf-tls-rfc8446bis]
              Rescorla, E., "The Transport Layer Security (TLS) Protocol
              Version 1.3", Work in Progress, Internet-Draft, draft-
              ietf-tls-rfc8446bis-14, 13 September 2025,
              <https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/draft-ietf-tls-
              rfc8446bis-14>.

   [NistFips203]
              "Module-lattice-based key-encapsulation mechanism
              standard", National Institute of Standards and Technology
              (U.S.), DOI 10.6028/nist.fips.203, August 2024,
              <https://doi.org/10.6028/nist.fips.203>.

   [RFC2119]  Bradner, S., "Key words for use in RFCs to Indicate
              Requirement Levels", BCP 14, RFC 2119,
              DOI 10.17487/RFC2119, March 1997,
              <https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc2119>.

   [RFC8174]  Leiba, B., "Ambiguity of Uppercase vs Lowercase in RFC
              2119 Key Words", BCP 14, RFC 8174, DOI 10.17487/RFC8174,
              May 2017, <https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc8174>.

   [TLS-FATT] IETF TLS WG, "TLS FATT Process", June 2025,
              <https://github.com/tlswg/tls-fatt>.

5.2.  Informative References

   [I-D.usama-tls-fatt-extension]
              Sardar, M. U., "Extensions to TLS FATT Process", Work in
              Progress, Internet-Draft, draft-usama-tls-fatt-extension-
              07, 2 May 2026, <https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/
              draft-usama-tls-fatt-extension-07>.

Acknowledgments

   The research work is funded by German Research Foundation ("Deutsche
   Forschungsgemeinschaft.")

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History

   -00

   *  On popular demand, moved from [I-D.usama-tls-fatt-extension] to an
      independent I-D

   *  Major change: added Section 2.1

   *  Some minor clarifications

Author's Address

   Muhammad Usama Sardar
   TU Dresden, Germany
   Email: muhammad_usama.sardar@tu-dresden.de

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