Human-Accelerated Geophysical Threshold Framework
draft-watts-hagth-framework-01

Network Working Group                                        D. O. Watts
Internet-Draft                                       GoodShyt Group Inc.
Intended status: Informational                           30 October 2026
Expires: 3 May 2027

           Human-Accelerated Geophysical Threshold Framework
                     draft-watts-hagth-framework-01

Abstract

   This document defines an informational research framework for
   describing anthropogenic perturbations that alter the timing,
   probability, coupling, or consequence of threshold transitions in
   geophysical systems without requiring anthropogenic dominance of the
   system's primary energy source.

Status of This Memo

   This document is an independent research draft.  It is not an IETF
   standard, does not specify Internet protocol behavior, and is
   provided in RFCXML form to make definitions, requirements, and
   falsification criteria machine-reviewable.

Status of This Memo

   This Internet-Draft is submitted in full conformance with the
   provisions of BCP 78 and BCP 79.

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   This Internet-Draft will expire on 3 May 2027.

Copyright Notice

   Copyright (c) 2026 IETF Trust and the persons identified as the
   document authors.  All rights reserved.

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   This document is subject to BCP 78 and the IETF Trust's Legal
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Table of Contents

   1.  Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   2
   2.  Requirements Language . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   2
   3.  Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   2
   4.  State and Counterfactual Model  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   3
   5.  Evidence Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   3
   6.  Falsification Criteria  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   3
   7.  Unsupported Extensions  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
   8.  Research-Integrity Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
   9.  IANA Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
   10. References  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
   Appendix A.  Changes since -00  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   4
   Author's Address  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   5

1.  Scope

   The framework applies only when a domain-specific stability margin or
   transition hazard can be physically defined and an anthropogenic
   perturbation can be measured or bounded.  It does not establish a
   universal geophysical law.

2.  Requirements Language

   The key words "MUST", "MUST NOT", "REQUIRED", "SHALL", "SHALL NOT",
   "SHOULD", "SHOULD NOT", "RECOMMENDED", "NOT RECOMMENDED", "MAY", and
   "OPTIONAL" in this document are to be interpreted as described in
   BCP 14 [RFC2119] [RFC8174] when, and only when, they appear in all
   capitals, as shown here.

3.  Terminology

   Trigger  A perturbation contributes directly to crossing a stability
      boundary.

   Acceleration  A perturbation advances an otherwise expected
      transition time, quantified by a counterfactual time difference
      when identifiable.

   Amplification  A perturbation increases the consequences of a primary
      event without necessarily causing that event.

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   Coupling  A perturbation to one subsystem changes the stability or
      hazard of another through a measurable causal pathway.

   Stability margin  A domain-specific measure of distance from failure
      or transition, with units and sign convention declared by the
      study.

4.  State and Counterfactual Model

   A study using this framework MUST distinguish natural forcing from
   anthropogenic forcing.  It SHOULD define a state vector, a stability
   function or hazard process, an exposure history, and a counterfactual
   model in which the anthropogenic exposure is removed or changed.

   The acceleration estimand is Delta t_A = t_c^(0) - t_c^(A), where
   t_c^(0) is the counterfactual threshold time under the reference
   exposure and t_c^(A) is the threshold time under anthropogenic
   forcing.  Positive values indicate acceleration.  If either threshold
   time is not identifiable, the study MUST report that limitation
   rather than substituting event coincidence.

5.  Evidence Requirements

   Attribution SHOULD include a physically plausible pathway,
   measurements or bounded estimates of the perturbation, uncertainty
   propagation, and a counterfactual design.  Temporal association alone
   is insufficient.

   Successful numerical execution, software verification, or document
   integrity checks MUST NOT be treated as empirical validation of a
   physical claim.

6.  Falsification Criteria

   An acceleration claim fails when the estimated Delta t_A is not
   materially positive under the preregistered uncertainty criterion.  A
   trigger claim fails when the measured perturbation cannot physically
   reach the failing structure on the relevant time scale or changes
   stability in the opposite direction.  An amplification claim fails
   when matched systems show no meaningful consequence difference after
   exposure adjustment.  A coupling claim fails when the proposed
   mediator does not change as predicted or does not carry a measurable
   portion of the effect.

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7.  Unsupported Extensions

   The framework does not, on current evidence, support claims of
   anthropogenic acceleration of major tectonic plate velocities, human
   control of mantle convection, demonstrated triggering of
   supervolcanic eruptions, geomagnetic collapse caused by crustal
   excavation, or global crustal failure.

8.  Research-Integrity Considerations

   Implementations SHOULD preserve source provenance, contradictory
   evidence, null results, version history, and explicit distinction
   between empirical observation, derived result, conjecture, and
   speculation.  Novelty and priority MUST NOT be asserted without a
   documented prior-art search.

9.  IANA Considerations

   This document has no IANA actions.

10.  References

   [RFC8174]  Leiba, B., "Ambiguity of Uppercase vs Lowercase in RFC
              2119 Key Words", BCP 14, RFC 8174, DOI 10.17487/RFC8174,
              May 2017, <https://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc8174>.

   [RFC2119]  Bradner, S., "Key words for use in RFCs to Indicate
              Requirement Levels", BCP 14, RFC 2119,
              DOI 10.17487/RFC2119, March 1997,
              <https://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc2119>.

Appendix A.  Changes since -00

   This section is to be removed before publishing as an RFC.

   Editorial and tooling-conformance changes only; no technical content
   was changed.

   *  Added BCP 14 Requirements Language section (document uses
      uppercase requirement keywords without the boilerplate; idnits
      error)

   *  Added RFC 2119 reference entry

   *  Added RFC 8174 reference entry

   *  Removed unreferenced bibliography entries (xml2rfc/idnits "unused
      reference"): Moein2023, Syvitski2022, Hill2024

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   *  Normalized author metadata (full name with ASCII form, initials,
      organization GoodShyt Group Inc., San Francisco CA postal, email,
      ORCID URI)

   *  Updated document date and revision number.

Author's Address

   Deonté O'dell Watts
   GoodShyt Group Inc.
   San Francisco, CA
   United States of America
   Email: deonte@goodshyt.fun
   URI:   https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8586-3650

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